Beware the Soft Landing Narrative with Economist Peter C. Earle
"It makes it sound as if some list of equations, or some cockpit with all these dials, & if you hit just the right one, you get the desired outcome."
There are increasing signs that the 2021 ā 2022 inflationary surge is cooling. But will there be a soft landing? A recession? What are the kind of narratives we will be told about Fed policies over the last few years, and the effectiveness of monetary policy?
To help me answer these questions, I was joined by Pete Earle on Liberty Curious. Pete is an economist for AIER who spent over 20 years as a trader at a number of securities firms and hedge funds in New York and the New York area. He expects narratives to emerge about how the Fed handled Covid, and that there is a distinct possibility that - like in the past - a far more charitable version of the last three years than is justified will emerge and become the definitive account.
Why is this important? Because the narratives that form today will become the received wisdom and history book accounts of the future. That may result in less skepticism among the public regarding what monetary policy can do, and we may confront a more emboldened central bank in the future.
Pete's article: https://www.aier.org/article/welcome-the-disinflation-beware-the-narrative/
